After the Close: September 13, 2023

Headline inflation (all items index) increased 3.7% for the 12 months ending in August. This was hotter than expected, as 3.6% was the forecast. It was also higher than the July headline inflation read which was at 3.2%. The market had no clear reaction to CPI and trading remained two-sided. On the ES, several attempts to trade below yLoD proved futile, and the majority of price action remained within Tuesday’s VA. Opposite from Tuesday, XLK was up 0.29% from the open while XLF was down -0.46%. SPY as a result remains pinballing between $444.5 and $449. Neither buyers or sellers are currently stepping up to drive the market into either direction. Tomorrow’s release of PPI, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims may provide the directional jolt we are waiting for.

Biggest contributors to CPI:

The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month.

BLS CPI Press Release
ES & NQ Sep 13, 2023
ES & NQ Sep 13, 2023

Watching

  • Gold Futures (GC), broke below the 1931 support level when CPI was released, but recovered and are continuing to hold that level of support for now.
  • Apple (AAPL) held at the $174 support level, a break of this level could bring it near it’s 150-day moving average (currently at about $173).
  • Amazon (AMZN) is approaching a 52-week high ($146.5 set in August last year).
  • Continuing to watch the divergence between XLF and XLK – will they move in the same direction on Th?