Steve Eisman’s Three Big Macro Themes

There are three great stories of our time right now. AI and everything having to do with it. Infrastructure. And Crypto. I believe in the first two and I don’t believe in the third. Steve Eisman on the Three Big Macro Stories of Our Time | Odd Lots Steve Eisman … Read more

The 5% Problem Holding Back NFTs

In the past 1 year Bitcoin is up 97%, Ethereum is up 60%. Solana is booming, layer 2 tokens are booming, and yet NFTs remain down. Are NFTs done? Will prices ever return to the mania levels we saw in 2021 and 2022? I’d argue that as long as interest … Read more

Seven Prevailing Market Topics: Updates Week of Jan 16

In this post I’ll cover the latest news and data points around the seven prevailing topics driving my market outlook. This quote from Bloomberg last week succinctly captured the sentiments bulls and bears will be grappling with in the weeks ahead. Will bulls overzealously banking on rate cuts for both … Read more

David Rosenberg on the Macro, Rates, Recession

This week the FOMC decided to hold the target interest rate steady at 525-550. Fed Funds Futures pricing data currently have a 95.2% probability that the Fed hold this interest rate level at the Dec 13 Fed meeting. And there is a 49.8% probability that the first 25 basis point … Read more

The Increase in Market Volatility in One Chart

Look at this 10-year monthly candlestick chart of Fund Ticker QQQ (Invesco’s NASDAQ-100 Index). Pre-2019, the monthly price range oscillated between $5-$10 per share (top to bottom of the candlestick), with an average of 0.5 billion shares traded. In 2019 volatility increased. The monthly price range increased to a $10-$20 … Read more

Paul Tudor Jones Warning on US Fiscal Debt

Yesterday, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones joined CNBC’s Squawk Box to share insights on the latest market trends. The fiscal debt of the United States was top-of-mind. The danger of leaving this problem unaddressed is something that investor Stanley Druckenmiller and the hosts of the All-In Podcast have been … Read more

Insights from Lee Robinson of Altana Wealth

Episode #212 of the On The Tape Podcast featured Lee Robison of Altana Wealth. Altana is a specialist fund manager whose edge is in asymmetric ideas and niche strategies. From Information Gathering to Information Filtering When I started in the Hedge Fund industry in the late 90s, it was about … Read more

Factors for a Recession, Consumer Questions

Danny Moses recently tweeted a 2007 WSJ article by David Wessel, “Three-Ingredient Recipe for Recession“. In the article Wessel was predicting that the incoming 2008 recession would be caused by three trends: When we look back next year at this time, it will be clear what caused the recession of … Read more